Pakistan’s COVID-19 Response: Pro-activity, Impact and Needs Assessment, and Using IT Proactively

The Government of Pakistan should be carrying out a Covid-19 Impact and Needs Assessment (CINA), in accordance with the global practice. [https://empowerpakistanbyazd.blog/2020/03/27/pakistans-covid-19-response-and-the-international-financial-institutions-where-is-the-rapid-needs-assessment-and-a-national-action-plan/]

The tool preferred for the required COVID-19 CINA in Pakistan is a Post Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA) and Recovery and Peace Building Assessment (RPBA) hybrid, without delving into the tedious Damage and Loss Assessment (DALA). Essentially in this desired CINA, there should be three components: service delivery, social cohesion and economic impact.

While some may rebut this idea, this can be an enormous management tool for the government during, and post crisis, and can be done by a dedicated team in parallel with the reactive measures that are being taken to manage the pandemic.

In aid of developing this impact and needs assessment for Pakistan, we should opt for an off the shelf information technological analytical tool system that assists in the information gaps for COVID-19:

a) ability to react in real time to media (both informed and disinformed and its ratio) based on a knowledge about the public understanding (and source of formation of the public understanding) of the disease and associated pandemic;

b) general public’s preparedness for any potential longer-term societal disruptions;

c) knowing how public perceive available health care and access the same;

d) how is work being delivered from home and how is workforce being disrupted by the same;

e) how are small and medium enterprises being disrupted;

f) disruptions in the transports and logistics and essential services.

This tool can then also be utilized to do real-time monitoring as follows.

  • Monitoring for compliance with stay-at-home and quarantine measures.
  • Monitoring to identify population flows to hospitals and pharmacies.
  • Monitoring of hospital infrastructure to understand staff readiness and hospitalization rates.
  • Forecasting of hotspots within urban zones as identifying latent areas for further monitoring due to population out-migration.
  • Developing of assistance (rations and cash) tracking system to integrate COVID-19 countrywide efforts.
  • Integrate monitoring and forecasting insights with assistance tracking system to facilitate actionable and agile decision-making.
  • To assist in COVID-19 related CINA.

All this can be achieved by combining real-time data from social media, newspapers, and other digital public opinion streams with traditional survey data, by algorithms and geospatial analysis. One can integrate insights from social media analytics, Internet of Things data, financial transactions, and Human Movement data to assess both national and hyper-local social disruption associated with COVID-19.

In summary, there is a dire need for setting up effective monitoring of quarantine compliance and local healthcare capacity coupled with actionable reporting and forecasting of disease hot-spots. The daily monitoring snapshots and forecasting outputs can be seamlessly integrated into an assistance monitoring system to support decision making.

Pakistan’s COVID-19 Response: Help the SMEs, please @Government of Pakistan

SME’s need help!

The need for the government to help small and medium businesses is growing by the day as the lock-down continues. This has also been a key issue discussed during the daily virtual global-national brainstorming meetings being spearheaded by PIDE. How should the government help these SMEs during this pandemic and resulting economic slowdown?

In the previous discussion “Pakistan’s COVID-19 Response: What of the Small and Medium Enterprises?” the significance of helping SMEs was highlighted and questions were raised about adequacy of the government’s COVID-19 fiscal support package and about who will be spearheading cause of the SMEs. [https://empowerpakistanbyazd.blog/2020/03/31/pakistans-covid-19-response-what-of-the-small-and-medium-enterprises/]

SMEs matter to our economy!

Allow me to refresh our collective memories. Somewhere between 3 and 4 million SMEs collectively provide 90 percent of the overall employment in Pakistan. Excluding the agriculture sector SMEs, 78 percent of the workforce is SME based. SMEs add 30 percent to 40 percent to the GDP of our country—depending on whose numbers you believe. They are spread in the proportion of our population across our provinces.

These SMEs are in almost every imaginable sector: 10 percent in Wood & Furniture; 4 percent in Jewelry; 16 percent in Grain Milling; 5 percent in Art Silk; 4 percent in Carpets; 7 percent in Metal Products; 13 percent in Cotton Weaving; 6 percent in Other Textiles; and 35 percent in Other Sectors.

This last “Other Sectors” is important. Technology and other start-ups, intellectual services providers, and so on constitute this “Other Sectors” category and are really where a lot of the employment for those with higher education is concentrated. The IT SMEs contributing to our exports fall within this category.

The CONVID-19 resultant layoffs will hurt SMEs more than the big-industry!

PIDE’s recent analyses in its recent CONVID-19 response bulletins on “Impact on Employment – Layoffs” [https://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PIDE-COVID-Bulletin.pdf and https://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PIDE-COVID-Bulletin-4.pdf] show the we are heading toward a vulnerable employed layoff in the neighborhood of 20 mil persons. Taking the range of estimates available, we have between 30 and 40 million Pakistanis employed by the SMEs. What the layoff estimates mean to SME sector is anyone’s guess, yet it would not be unreasonable to assume that almost a third to half of the SME sector employees are at risk if this slow down continues another month or so.

SMEs are not benefited by the post COVID-19 relief measures posited by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP)

There is very little credit to the SME sector. SMEs finance is around 7 percent of the total private sector financing in Pakistan. The total outstanding SME financing per SME is barely 2.4milPKR per SME—way lower than even the allowed exposure of up to 25milPKR by SBP. This is further verified when we find that 83 percent of all credit by the SBP and scheduled banks is to the government sector (including State Owned Entities or SOEs). So, deferment of loan payments, lowering of interest rates, and other such financial measures really don’t by and large impact the SME sector of Pakistan.

SME Financing by State Bank (Rs in Billion)Jun 19Sep 19
SME Financing (outstanding)464.86422.12
Domestic Private Sector Financing6,200.06121.1
SME Financing as percentage of Private Sector Financing7.50%6.90%
SME NPL ratio17.04%18.95%
No. of SME borrowers183,606182,149

Supporting Pakistani SMEs requires direct support to them through innovative approaches which may have multiple impacts

Government of Pakistan should directly offer to support the SMEs as follows.

A) Provide wage and rental subsidies to SMEs who have tax registration with FBR; this can be in the form of cash payments directly to SME employees and to lessors.

B) Advertise that all SMEs registering with FBR through a simplified registration procedure will get all the same subsidies.

As a start, both these measures will compliment the cash payment schemes for through the Kafalat program of Ehsas and will have a higher stabilization impact than supporting large businesses at this time.

 

Acknowledgements to contributors

Useful inputs for this blog were received from Ms. Uzma Zia (Senior Research Economist) and Dr Usman Qadir( Senior Research Economist), both at the PIDE.

 

References other than those listed above

Economic survey 2018-19

Akhtar S. H. Shah (2018) Framework for SME Sector Development in Pakistan, Planning Commission of Pakistan Ministry of Planning, Development & Reform Government of Pakistan

SBP website (http://www.sbp.org.pk/sme/index.htm)

Quarterly SME Finance Review(2019), SBP (http://www.sbp.org.pk/sme/PDF/DFG/2019/Sep.pdf)

SMEDA (https://smebank.org/media-center/sme-sectors-brief/)

Zafar, A., & Mustafa, S. (2017). SMEs and its role in economic and socio-economic development of Pakistan. International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences6(4).

Pakistan’s COVID-19 Response: Logistics and Essential Services

“..This train from Yiwu to Madrid, which is the longest rail line in the world, has been regularly running since 2014. It usually carries electronics, automobile components, and other goods, but from now until the crisis ends the company has made space available to any individuals or companies looking to make a donation to the COVID-19 relief efforts in Europe..” so reported Forbes a few days ago.

Logistics and transport services are at the core of any pandemic response. So, why would Pakistan be thinking twice about this? To answer this, we need to look deeper and separate this into its four dimensions which will help understand the suggestions proffered later in this blog. The first obviously is passengers and goods, the second is across the border versus within the borders, the third one is the mode of transport—rail, road, air, and water, and the fourth one is the reliance on indirect supply and demand patterns for pricing. I will not focus much on another dimension which is intra and intercity, as we are basically discussing continuity of cross-Pakistan logistics and essential services.

We will start with modes. Trains don’t usually jump tracks and neither to airplanes take multiple pitstops and chat with other airplanes along the way. Ships have ports of call and rather large crews barring very modern ones. Road traffic—trucks, buses, cars—has choices to do all the above. In fact, when dealing with aids, it is truckers we tackle as they not only are a source of carrying and transmitting and intervening, but their social ambivalence levels normally exceed average people. So be there wars or pandemics, the first choice for logistics and transport are trains and aircrafts. Pakistan unfortunately has very rudimentary railways’ capability and for us the choice for major within country movement falls on the road sector services. Air service and airport are also very easy to ‘contain’ and as such need revised SOPs during pandemics. In fact, restricting people travel to strictly rail or air in a contained manner is a preference in both war and pandemics.

Within our borders, road transport and logistics followed by air and rail will have to be continued as essential services. Across borders, it is obvious that essential inputs to our economy (both finished and unfinished) must be continued and for this our ports need to be operational. Now’s not the time to focus on Gwadar rather it is time to concentrate on our two major ports, Qasim and Karachi. Air services can and will continue to pay the appropriate role followed to some extent by road sector in the case of our links with Afghanistan, Iran, and to a very small extent China. Ensuring continuity and in fact acceleration of Customs and related clearance services is required, to ensure that Goods Clearance times are brought to nought.

Most important is to decide on who avails the continued essential transport and logistics services. The priority must be goods transport followed by security and medical. The many transport and logistics services serving transport of people need to rethink the business model on how they can stay relevant and survive. Transport of people is secondary given the nature of this pandemic and the country would serve well to regulate the same.

This brings us to cost of services. Pakistan like other transport markets has its own peculiarities when it comes to how costs are estimated. Pakistan exports less than it imports, and it does so primarily through two seaports. This results in a directional imbalance in the availability of transport which impacts costs. This imbalance is compounded by the fact that the nature of our exports tends to be less cost dense which the imports tends to be more cost dense. Further, being a large agricultural country crop seasons impact availability further. In times such as now, these costs become further unpredictable.

Be ready to reestablish ‘fair price’. I say this as otherwise continuity of services will be jeopardized. With approximately 200,000 trucks on the road and about a million plus employed directly in trucking, this is very much part of the daily wagers’ and almost- to actual- poor that government is talking about targeting.

All this points to a COVID-19 response strategy for continuity of logistics and essential services as follows. A) Focus on continuity of goods transport. B) Focus on improving CONVID-19 awareness amongst the truckers in Pakistan. C) Revise the established government ‘rates’ at local, provincial and federal levels to above pre-CONVID-19 levels. D) Reduce harassment [primarily by provincial security agencies] of truckers providing these essential services along the roads. E) Request and recognize those people transporters who are willing to run essential ‘goods supply routes’ both inter- and intra-city. F) Decree Customs and clearance services to operate 24/7 at the seaports, in shifts. G) Develop and decree revised SOPs for ‘contained’ movement of people though air and rail.

Pakistan’s COVID-19 Response: What of the Small and Medium Enterprises?

I am lucky to be part of a very able and noble group under the aegis of Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE) who are daily undertaking analysis and discussions and recommendations geared towards the policy makers in our holy state of Pakistan.

Today, after the daily morning virtual meeting of this group around COVID-19 issues, I came out thinking about the reality of my existence and of my associates in my small ‘do tank’, Reenergia! I am therefore going to talk about and present a use case of a Pakistani SME albeit on the ‘small’ rather than on the ‘medium’ side.

Between Reenergia and its sister concern Paidartwanai, we have an annual turnover of less than 120milPKR. We have about a dozen employees and another half a dozen temporary/short-term staff, and all the typical overheads you can think about! Just FYI, loans to banks are not one of these overheads as banks in Pakistan tend not to look favorably on us—though included are loans extended either as advances by Clients or individuals. Let us review how COVID-19 is impacting us by asking some questions.

First, how much has our work suffered due to the COVID-19 slow-down—in terms of pre-COVID-19 versus now/post COVID-19 business projections. These projections do not include slow-down in business development; but are based on work already developed and about to be signed/contracted. Our estimate of this slow-down is about 30 percent of projections.

Second, how much is the slowdown in business development? This has two parts: a) the slow-down in the reactions to the work already solicited—includes delayed responses to proposals already submitted or being submitted; and b) the slow-down in solicitations for our services. Both are due to the Client base business slowdown or simply difficulty in working-from-home or even revision of priorities. All this hits our bottom line over the next six months by another 20 percent.

With a cumulative impact on our SME of a reduction in revenues of around 50 percent of projected, we are beginning to see another, third, aspect which is hurting SMEs like us: the slow-down in receivables on work already in hand. This is also alarming as we are the part of a value chain and with a small size SME like ours, we are literally the ‘daily wagers’ of the SMEs and businesses. We don’t have reserves to keep paying our employees and our bills and rentals.

I have not accounted for another fourth element which I see affecting almost every SME around us, especially in the tech and services sector; the inability to keep up the pace of work while working-from-home or the absolute inability to work remotely. I will not handle this presently as we are relatively less impacted by this element, till now.

Pakistan, our operating environment, categorizes enterprises that have up to 50 employees and an annual turnover of 150milPKR as Small Enterprises (SE), and those with an annual turnover between that of 150milPKR and 800milPKR as Medium Enterprises (ME). The Small and Medium Enterprise Development Authority (SMEDA) of Pakistan categorizes SMEs overall as enterprises with up to 250 employees and turnover up to PKR 250 million. Pakistan has between 3.2 to 4.5 mil SMEs.

These SMEs contribute up to 40 percent of GDP—adding more than 17trillionPKR. SMEs employ around 80 percent of the non-agriculture labour force—employing a total of around 32 million Pakistanis [between 7 to 10 employees per SME]. Estimated average monthly salary of a SME employee is anyone’s guess but I estimate we can take a range between 30,000PKR and 55,000PKR.

Where are we heading with talking about how the COVID-19 is hurting a SME business like mine and about SMEs in Pakistan? Here’s the thing. If we, at Reenergia, are estimating revenues going down by 50 percent by June, what does this mean for other SMEs? Are we looking at SMEs laying off workers? [https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/633712-forecast-of-covid-19-pakistan-may-face-12-3m-to-18-53m-layoffs-says-study]

Are we looking at an almost 8trillionPKR drag on the economy? How can we cater for the SMEs’ workers? Looking at the 100milPKR relief in the Prime Minister’s COVID-19 relief package, I am wondering if it is adequate? There is obviously no way that Pakistan’s government can afford emulating Canada or others, but even a 100bilPKR package for SMEs alone implies a onetime support of 3,125PKR per person employed in the SME sector of Pakistan.

Who is thinking about this? Planning Commission? Ministry of Finance? Pakistan’s National Security Council? Should not institutions supporting SMEs in Pakistan not be taking a closer look? Karandaaz? SMEDA? Who?

Pakistan’s COVID-19 Response: To Test or Not to Test

With so much information floating around and being absorbed or otherwise, I will not bore you with the numbers but simply provide a distillation of our on-going discussions focused on “should we be testing everybody in Pakistan?”

This is an important discussion as it impacts other on-going discussions around the cost of testing, the mode of testing (which test), access to testing kits, delivery of these tests (citizen goes to test or test comes to citizen), and handling of those testing positive.

From the discussions I have been a part of the consensus seems to be emerging towards testing through symptomatic targeting and, definitely, against universal testing! Here is the logic leading to this conclusion.

The cost of universal testing is a prohibiting variable but not primarily due to the outright fiscal burden but rather the procurement aspect. Even if delivered cost of the testing was around USD 50 (~PKR 8,000) per unit, we are looking at 3 to 4 percent of GDP as the cost (same as the annual defense spending of Pakistan). Then is the issue of procuring and delivering over 200 million tests.

This does not stop here, as this is followed by a review of how these tests will be delivered. Whether the citizen is asked to approach a test delivery site, or the test is delivered to the citizen’s doorstep, the universal testing process is time un-wieldy and impractical based on simple back of the envelope calculations.

Should the universal testing somehow become practical, there are daunting social challenges. Since more than 95 percent either fall in the no effect plus recovered bracket, and almost half the population will eventually be infected (based on present predictions), knowing that a citizen is positive will create a social stigma and a social pandemic in the ability of society to deal with each other.

Symptomatic and citizen responsibility driven testing as opposed to universal testing is thus the right approach which also appears to be followed by most including by the Pakistan government. We suggest using technology in both push and pull modes supplemented by radio and TV broadcasts and further supplemented by the volunteer (the “Cororna Tiger Force” being assembled by the Prime Minister).

A mind-mapping exercise around the symptomatic and citizen responsibility driven testing shows that with these options working in parallel, we can cover almost all of Pakistan in about 45 to 60 days and really understand the magnitude of the pandemic allowing us to rapidly assemble coping and mitigation strategies!